Wembanyama has shifted the series. Can the Knicks respond in Game 4?

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

The Knicks arrived at Game 3 riding a 13-game postseason winning streak, the atmosphere inside Madison Square Garden cranked to a level that made a sweep feel almost inevitable. The San Antonio Spurs were not interested in inevitability. Victor Wembanyama, finishing with 32 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three blocks and two steals, controlled the contest from the first television timeout, when he had already scored nine points on four-for-four shooting. The Spurs won 115-111 to make it 2-1. Game 4 is Wednesday night, 8:30 p.m. ET, back at MSG.

The tactical story of Monday’s win was Wembanyama’s shot selection. Per GeniusIQ tracking, his average shot distance dropped from 17.3 feet in Game 1 and 15.2 feet in Game 2 down to 10.6 feet in Game 3. San Antonio’s coaching staff, led by Mitch Johnson, made a deliberate choice to put Wembanyama closer to the basket rather than allow the Knicks to sag off him at distance. Twenty-two of his 32 points came either at the rim or from the free-throw line. The Spurs’ offensive rating for the game was 123.7, their second-most efficient performance of the entire postseason.

Stephon Castle contributed 23 points and five assists, making key plays in the fourth quarter when the Knicks tried to claw back. De’Aaron Fox hit the decisive runner in the lane late in the fourth to extend the lead to five before Castle iced the result at the line. The Spurs also committed just eight turnovers and led for 78 percent of the contest, according to NBA.com’s official play-by-play data. The road team has now won all three games, a combination that has occurred only once before in Finals history.

How the Knicks fought back in Game 3

New York was not without answers. Jalen Brunson scored 32 points and OG Anunoby contributed 28 on nine-for-13 shooting, the latter continuing a postseason run in which his usage rate sits at a below-average 18.1 percent despite producing at an elite efficiency level. Anunoby has driven to the basket over Wembanyama multiple times in this series, a match-up wrinkle the Knicks have only partially exploited.

The second quarter belonged entirely to New York. Role players Jose Alvarado and Jordan Clarkson gave the Knicks momentum before Anunoby took over on the perimeter to cut a double-digit Spurs advantage down to one at half-time. San Antonio’s third quarter offensive surge, 34 points on 23 possessions, was the decisive swing. The Knicks allowed 24 more free-throw attempts in the second half than in the first.

Brunson was typically composed when addressing the loss. “Each game, no matter what the situation is, we’re growing as a team,” he told reporters after the game, as quoted by ABC7 New York. “We’re going to stick together. We’re going to execute, we’re going to be better. That’s just how our mindset has to be going forward.” Both teams are healthy heading into Game 4. Neither the Knicks nor the Spurs have listed a player as out or doubtful for Wednesday’s contest.

The RotoWire read on the lineups and what to watch

For bettors and fantasy players tracking the series, staying on top of confirmed starters and any late-breaking injury news is critical with Games 4 and 5 both at MSG before a potential trip back to San Antonio. Speaking to RotoWire, the award-winning independent resource covering daily NBA starting lineups and injury updates alongside real-time player news, one analyst noted: “The key rotation question for Game 4 is whether Karl-Anthony Towns gets more offensive touches in the fourth quarter. His 11 points and eight rebounds in Game 3 were fine but the Knicks need him more central to the half-court sets when Brunson is being trapped by San Antonio’s three-guard lineup.”

Towns shot six-for-13 across Games 1 and 2, and his presence around the elbows creates real problems for Wembanyama in pick-and-roll coverage. The wider series debate is whether Mike Brown adjusts New York’s defensive scheme to prevent Wembanyama getting deep post position early. According to ESPN’s Finals analysis, when the Knicks went small without Towns or Mitchell Robinson on the floor, a basic pick-and-roll allowed Wembanyama to glide to the rim and dunk without challenge. Brown will almost certainly address that rotation in the days between games.

The bigger picture: a second Spurs dynasty and 53 years of Knicks history

The historical weight on this series sits unevenly. New York has not won an NBA championship since 1973. The Knicks swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, with Jalen Brunson earning the conference finals MVP award, to reach the Finals for the first time since 1999. That year, they lost to San Antonio in five games. The Spurs are back, this time led by a 22-year-old from Paris rather than Tim Duncan from the Virgin Islands.

Wembanyama is now averaging 29 points per game across the three Finals games played so far, the leading scorer in the series by a margin. He became the second-youngest player in Finals history to post a 30-point, five-rebound, five-assist game, behind only Magic Johnson. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson was measured in his assessment after Game 3. “We’ve got to play to a level of execution standard and to our style of play to give ourselves the best chance to win,” Johnson said, as reported by TalkBasket.net.

At FanDuel, the Knicks open Game 4 as 1.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -125. The Spurs are priced at +105. The total sits at 216.5 points, up from 215.5 in Game 3 after the teams combined for 226. The series-winner market has the Knicks at -500 to lift the trophy. San Antonio shortened dramatically after Game 3 from their pre-series position, reflecting the genuine belief that Wembanyama can sustain this level of output for another four to five games.

The road team has won every game so far. That anomaly, which last happened in 1993 between Phoenix and Chicago, cuts against the Knicks’ structural advantages but also suggests this series has a logic of its own. The team that finally wins at home is likely the team that wins the championship.

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