Deni Avdija could become a free agent in 2028 despite emerging as the Portland Trail Blazers’ best player, with Sam Quinn of CBS Sports explaining that his current contract structure makes an early extension difficult.
“For cap reasons I will explain shortly, right now, it does look like Deni Avdija will become a free agent in 2028,” Quinn wrote. “But ‘becoming a free agent’ and ‘leaving as a free agent’ are different conversations.”
Avdija, 25, is in the third year of a four-year, $55 million contract and is scheduled to make $11.875 million in the final season. Quinn noted that standard veteran extensions are tied to a player’s existing salary, making Avdija’s current deal too restrictive for Portland to simply extend him at a salary reflecting his current value.
A standard veteran extension can begin at 140% of the previous salary or 140% of the estimated average player salary, whichever is greater. Given Avdija’s production, Quinn believes that figure would be well below what the forward could command on the open market.
There is a potential solution for Portland. The Blazers could create sufficient salary-cap space next offseason to renegotiate the final year of Avdija’s contract and then extend him based on the higher salary. Quinn cited the Utah Jazz’s recent treatment of Lauri Markkanen and the Memphis Grizzlies’ extension of Jaren Jackson as examples of the mechanism.
The problem is Portland’s projected financial position. Quinn estimated the 2027-28 salary cap at $174 million and said the Blazers currently have just under $182 million committed for next season, before accounting for Scoot Henderson and assuming their options are exercised and Robert Williams III eventually becomes guaranteed.
That would leave Portland with substantial work to do if it wants to create the room necessary to renegotiate and extend Avdija next summer.
Avdija’s production makes the issue particularly important. He averaged 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists in 66 games during the 2025-26 season, shooting 46.2% from the field and 80.2% from the free-throw line while earning his first All-Star selection.
His offensive development has been significant since joining Portland. After averaging 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 72 games during 2024-25, he increased his scoring by more than seven points per game while becoming a primary playmaker.
Portland also changed the roster around him this offseason, most notably acquiring Ja Morant from Memphis for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. The Blazers finished 42-40 last season and made the playoffs, while Donovan Clingan has been declared off-limits in trade discussions following the Morant trade.
If Avdija reaches free agency in 2028, Portland would still have an important advantage. The Blazers would hold his Bird Rights, allowing them to offer a fifth season that other teams cannot provide under the same circumstances.
However, Quinn believes that reaching free agency would introduce unnecessary uncertainty for Portland, particularly if another team has significant cap space and becomes an attractive destination for Avdija.
“For someone like Deni who’s been underpaid to this point, the fifth year on his contract is probably pretty meaningful,” Quinn wrote. “For this reason, the Blazers would be the obvious, on-paper frontrunner to retain Deni even if he does reach free agency.”
Avdija’s current contract has given Portland significant value, but that same bargain could make him difficult to retain before 2028 without substantial salary-cap maneuvering.
