The Oklahoma City Thunder could eventually be forced to reconsider Chet Holmgren’s place in their long-term core as the financial pressure of the second apron increases. The possibility was raised by Zach Harper of The Athletic, who pointed to Holmgren’s performances against Victor Wembanyama as a potential factor in a future decision.
“The second apron is rearing its ugly head with OKC in real time and will continue to do so as long as the Thunder keep that big three together,” Harper wrote. “They might have to make a big-time decision soon. If Holmgren continues to struggle against Victor Wembanyama when it matters most, then maybe that decision becomes easier.”
Oklahoma City already made significant roster sacrifices this offseason to stay below the second apron, trading Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. Those moves reduced the Thunder’s depth but also created substantial financial savings while preserving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Jalen Williams as the franchise’s three primary pieces.
The trio alone accounts for approximately $143 million in 2026-27 salary commitments, with that figure rising to $149.5 million in 2027-28, $161 million in 2028-29, $172.5 million in 2029-30 and $184 million in 2030-31. Holmgren and Williams are entering the first season of their five-year rookie max extensions, while Gilgeous-Alexander remains under his long-term deal.
Holmgren’s production provides a strong argument for keeping him. The 23-year-old averaged 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 69 regular-season games in 2025-26 while shooting 55.7% from the field and 36.2% from three-point range. He also finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and earned All-Star and All-NBA Third Team honors.
His postseason numbers were solid as well, with Holmgren averaging 14.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in 15 games while shooting 56.8% from the field. However, his Western Conference finals matchup with Wembanyama exposed a statistical gap that could become relevant if Oklahoma City must eventually choose between its expensive core players.
Across seven games, Holmgren averaged 10.7 points and 7.1 rebounds while shooting 51.0% from the field and 27.3% from three. Wembanyama averaged 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.7 blocks on 48.1% shooting, producing a plus-62 rating compared with Holmgren’s minus-14.
The most difficult moment came in Game 7. Holmgren played 33 minutes but scored only four points on 1-of-2 shooting, although he added four rebounds, two steals and two blocks as San Antonio eliminated Oklahoma City 111-103.
The Thunder’s financial constraints extend beyond the three stars. Cason Wallace is extension eligible, while Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams and Jared McCain will become extension eligible next year. Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso also provide valuable rotation production but could become difficult to retain as Oklahoma City’s payroll rises.
Holmgren’s contract and production make an immediate trade unlikely, but the combination of escalating payroll obligations and the Wembanyama matchup gives Oklahoma City another variable to monitor. The Thunder won 64 games and reached the Western Conference finals in 2025-26, so any decision involving Holmgren would represent a major change to a team that remains built around its young core.
