The Man City verdict is an earthquake – what comes next could be even bigger

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Perhaps the most seismic day in English football history, but one that is still going to see more earthquakes to come – and perhaps for some time.

As news broke from The Athletic that Manchester City are expected to be found guilty of most of the 115 charges – with sources insisting the same to the The Independent – there was still no official Premier League statement. The competition is still subject to a private and confidential process, amid a situation that remains legally sensitive.

While many figures in football found this “absurd” given how reports on this are the talk of the game, after 24 hours of rumours that a decision was imminent, it also points to how – in the words of one source – “this is nowhere near the end”.

City are expected to appeal, “trying every route possible”, potentially including the High Court, even though that is not strictly permitted in the rules.

That could yet take months, even years.

And that already in a situation where, without an actual published award, the entire case still forms one of the longest waits for a civil award in English modern legal history.

It all means that, despite a huge step after eight years of waiting, there is still so much uncertainty.

Many involved do seem to have been caught cold by the news. Everyday City staff were not forewarned, which marks a difference from previous steps in this eight-year process, and many were resorting to gallows humour once the news came out.

While there was a lot of “chatter” that something was about to come out after Thursday’s Premier League meeting, no one knew the fine details.

Outside City, responses have ranged from relief to shock. There is genuine surprise that the Premier League are expected to win so many of the charges, mostly due to the risk of having more than 100 of them and “the legal firepower being deployed”.

Some sources were describing City as “internally measured”, with the general statement to media reflecting that: that they were still insisting on innocence.

“The Premier League process remains ongoing, with significant elements to be completed, and subject to strict confidentiality. As such Manchester City’s position remains consistent with the club’s statement of February 2023.”

Many within the Premier League were also struck by the tone of the second paragraph.

“The club has diligently respected due process for eight years on the basis that the Premier League board and executive would behave as an independent, impartial and fair-minded regulator, free from partisan influence.”

Around the same time as the story first broke, new City coach Enzo Maresca put up a social media post with the caption: “Time to breathe. Time to analyse. Time to learn.”

The photos included feet on grass, a swimming pool and a quote attributed to Socrates saying: “The only thing I know is that I know nothing.”

We do now, for the first time since the charges were announced in February 2023, know something.

That is itself huge.

The fact the whole process is still ongoing, however, leaves the situation with many ifs and question marks despite this first full-stop.

Or, as one executive said, “this story has more chapters in it”.

Many of the questions are the same as before, albeit now with the clarity of an expected outcome, and – crucially – the presence of the Independent Football Regulator.

That body does have powers under section 34.

If City are indeed found guilty of the most serious charges, the regulator could push for the removal of key figures.

Some in football are even broaching the idea of a forced sale due to the severity of the case, given that this would be perceived as the greatest case of cheating in English football history.

It should not be forgotten that this is ultimately about the allegation of submitting false accounting.

The charges didn’t just involve accusations of breaching financial regulations on several occasions, but of not providing accurate payment details.

A sanctions hearing would determine the most immediate punishments. Multiple sources feel this can’t possibly go without a huge points deduction, particularly given the recent precedent of Everton and Nottingham Forest, potentially enough to relegate the club.

Many feel such a quantity of guilty verdicts would nevertheless be sufficient grounds for outright expulsion from the league.

But what happens if the appeal goes on? What if City win the league this season if any punishments are not applied now? What if punishments are applied and the appeal is successful?

Will aggrieved clubs push for legal compensation, having missed out on league titles and Champions League places?

And then there are all the other sub-plots and threads. Pep Guardiola’s departure now looks impeccably timed. He doesn’t have to answer questions on any of this.

Rodri and Erling Haaland may have to, though.

City’s former captain was due to speak to media in London, of all places, ahead of Spain’s Nations League fixture against England.

Haaland has similar duties planned for Saturday.

There are just so many implications all round. Could players have grounds for termination?

Other executives see City’s statement as “very punchy”, that potentially turns this cold war into a civil war.

Within that, though, amid so much criticism of the process and even their governance, the Premier League has a highly significant first victory.