The NBA Board of Governors approved a new Draft Lottery system on May 28, and the league says the change is meant to reduce incentives for teams to prioritize draft position over winning games. The new format, called the “3-2-1 Lottery,” begins with the 2027 NBA Draft and is scheduled to run through the 2029 draft before the league revisits the rules for 2030 and beyond.
The biggest change is the size of the lottery pool and how the odds are grouped. Instead of 14 teams, 16 teams will be in the drawing, with each team assigned three, two or one lottery ball depending on where it finished, and the league says the structure is designed to flatten the odds across the non-playoff field.
Under the new rules, teams that miss both the NBA Playoffs and the NBA Play-In Tournament get three lottery balls, but the three worst records are “draft relegated” and lose one ball. The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds in each conference get two balls each, while the teams that lose the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games get one ball each.
The lottery drawing will determine the first 16 picks in the first round, and the draft floor changes too. A draft-relegated team cannot fall lower than No. 12, while every other lottery team can slide as far as No. 16.
The league also added two safeguards against repeated lottery success. A team’s own pick cannot land No. 1 in consecutive drafts, and it cannot be a top-five pick in three straight drafts, with those limits applying even if the pick is traded away and later held by another team.
The new system also changes how teams can protect traded picks. Newly traded picks cannot carry top-12 through top-15 protections, and the league says it now has broader disciplinary power to combat tanking, including the ability to reduce lottery odds, alter draft positions and issue significant fines.
How the 2026 standings would fit the system
Using the current standings, 16 teams from each conference would enter the lottery pool. In the East, teams like the Bucks, Bulls, Nets, Pacers, and Wizards would qualify as non-playoff teams with three-ball status, while the Hornets, Heat, Magic, 76ers, and play-in teams would fall into the two- and one-ball tiers.
In the West, the Pelicans, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Kings, and Jazz would be in the three-ball group, while the Suns, Blazers, Clippers, and Warriors would be placed in the lower tiers based on play-in positioning.
Under this structure, even bottom-tier teams would not have guaranteed elite odds, and the flattened distribution would create closer probability gaps across the lottery field. The draft-relegation rule would still protect the worst teams from falling below pick No. 12, but without guaranteeing top selections.
