Playoff history continues to show that teams asserting control early are the most likely to win it all.
Since 2003, roughly 74 percent of NBA champions have exited the first round with one loss or none, highlighting how important a strong start can be.
The San Antonio Spurs fit that mold this year after eliminating the Portland Trail Blazers in five games, keeping themselves within the typical championship pattern.
Only a few teams have broken this trend, most notably the Boston Celtics in 2008 and the Spurs in 2014, who both survived seven-game first-round series before going on to win the title.
In general, champions tend to establish dominance immediately, and teams that cruise through the first round historically have a much higher chance of finishing their playoff run with a championship.
Every NBA Champion Since 2015 Has Won First Round In Five Or Fewer Games https://t.co/cKm5A6Ow8e
— RealGM (@RealGM) April 29, 2026
