One of the big unknowns of the first 48-team World Cup is going to be the chaos of the dreaded third-place table.
This World Cup has 12 groups of four teams. The top two teams in each group will advance, along with the eight-best third-place teams.
It’s a format we’ve seen at the last three editions of the European Championship, albeit in a 24-team tournament.
Remember Portugal in 2016? They ended up as champions after finishing third in their group, with three draws from three.
Could we see a repeat in 2026? That very much depends on what it will take to advance as one of the eight-best third-place teams…
Is one win enough to go through?
The format of the Euros gives us a bit of a clue. Four points (so one win, a draw and a defeat) is almost guaranteed to be enough. But, no, one win on its own is sometimes not enough to go through.
At Euro 2016, third-placed sides Turkey and Albania were eliminated on three points despite both winning one of their games and losing the other two.
At Euro 2020, Finland and Slovakia both finished third in their group with one win and two defeats, but three points was not enough to qualify.
And in Euro 2024, Hungary were eliminated on three points while Slovenia did ‘a Portugal’ and advanced despite three draws and zero wins.
The magic number for goal difference
Based on the examples of previous tournaments at the Euros, the ranking of third-place teams will be determined by goal difference.
In 2016, Turkey and Albania were eliminated because they finished their group with a goal difference of -2. Meanwhile, Portugal and Northern Ireland advanced on three points and an even goal difference.
At Euro 2020, Finland also went out with a goal difference of -2, with Ukraine progressing on three points and a goal difference of -1.
And in 2024, Hungary’s goal difference of -3 was not good enough to advance, despite them beating Scotland in their final game.
The magic number for progress is therefore likely to be three points, plus a goal difference of at least -1 – the higher, the better, obviously.
In theory, this would involve winning one match, and then limiting the margin of defeat in the other two matches to one goal.
It would be an extremely risky strategy, however, and would leave a team right on the cusp of elimination, relying on other results.
Additionally, it would be extremely unlikely that a team fails to go through after finishing third in the group on four points – so a win, a draw and a loss.
Likewise, the chances of advancing on two points – so a draw plus two defeats – are extremely remote.
