As the 2026 World Cup gets underway, an unfamiliar situation is unfolding in the Brazil camp. The five-time winners, so often among the favourites going into the summer, are something of an unknown entity.
The tournament’s most successful team have come to define the World Cup across their five victorious campaigns, from Pele’s final brace and Carlos Alberto’s goal against Italy to Ronaldo’s redemption in 2002.
And 32 years after winning the World Cup in Pasadena thanks to another iconic moment, the next generation of the Selecao arrives in North America hoping to lift the famous trophy for a second time on US soil.
However, they risk falling to an unprecedented run of bad form. Brazil have never featured in six World Cups in a row without winning one, but this tournament could well put the Selecao on the wrong side of history.
Brazil’s performances on the biggest stage have declined in alarming fashion since 2002. The most notable chapter came in 2014, when a home World Cup promised so much and yet ended in the worst humiliation of all, the hosts demolished 7-1 in the semi-finals in one of the most (in)famous matches of all time.
An 2022 was perhaps their best chance in retrospect, though a talented side exited in the cruellest of ways, losing on penalties to Croatia in the quarter-finals.
But if that 2022 side offered some hope at the top level, it was soon quashed as Dorival Junior took over, with the Selecao losing in the quarter-finals of the 2024 Copa America. The qualification campaign for the World Cup was similarly dire, with the manager sacked in March 2025 after a 4-1 loss to Argentina that left some fearing that Brazil could even miss out on qualification.
Drastic measures were needed and Brazil took them, appointing the first permanent foreign manager in their history as Carlo Ancelotti took over in May 2025.
In a strange twist of fate, Ancelotti was on the Italy bench as assistant coach in the 1994 final, with Roberto Baggio’s famous penalty miss giving the Selecao their fourth title. Now, the great Italian takes on perhaps the biggest job of his career.
His first task was to turn around the qualification campaign. Thankfully, Conmebol qualifying is one of the kinder formats, and the Selecao secured fifth place in the table with a 1-0 win over Paraguay on 10 June.
However, performances were mixed across those games, and that has continued since securing qualification. As well as that win over Paraguay, the Selecao drew to Ecuador, beat a poor Chile side and lost 1-0 to Bolivia. A loss to Japan and a draw to Tunisia followed, while they were beaten 2-1 by France in March in what has been their only match against top-quality opposition.
All of this to say that fans and pundits alike simply do not know for sure how good this Brazil team is. However, on paper it does not look like a side capable of winning the World Cup.
The friendly against France was telling in that Brazil went into the game seemingly accepting of their ‘lower’ status as a team at present, with counter-attacking being used as the main tactic. While they did trouble Les Blues, they fell to a 2-1 loss that certainly did not suggest they would have enough to compete with the favourites this summer.
And while the starting XI for Saturday’s game against Morocco will include a few different names from that game in March, even more recent results have raised questions. Brazil beat Panama 6-2 in a warm-up friendly but after the game there were concerns over the set-up in midfield, with Casemiro and Guimaraes occasionally isolated in a 4-2-4.
So much so that Ancelotti – who had previously said that “the best model of play for us is to go with four up front” and two in midfield – admitted that his team could have been more compact at times, with a need to improve defensive solidity. So far, the reality of trying to gel these players has seemingly proved difficult for the Italian.
If that wasn’t enough, the 2-1 win over Egypt in their final warm-up game ended with an injury to likely starting right-back Wesley. It is the latest in a string of important absences for the Selecao, who’ll also be missing Rodrygo, Eder Militao and Chelsea’s Estevao Willian.
While there’s not too much Ancelotti could have done about it, it will also worry the Italian that the national team is lacking in a key position. Igor Thiago is perhaps the only out-and-out striker in the squad, and while Matheus Cunha has played there before, that experiment has rendered just one goal in his 23 Brazil appearances.
However, while it looks far from rosy ahead of their tournament opener, there are reasons to be optimistic.
The Selecao remain the protectors of jogo bonito in the eyes of many, and while their star has faded in recent years, their talent factory has continued to produce. In Vinicius Jr, Raphinha, Bruno Guimarães and Gabriel Magalhaes, they have four players who’d get into most starting XIs at the tournament – Ancelotti himself was alluding to the La Liga duo when he said that he has “two of the five best players in the world” at his disposal.
Below them, there’s a capable supporting cast including the likes of Alisson, Marquinhos, Casemiro, Cunha and Endrick. The latter may even be able to mark himself out as the striker option if he’s afforded opportunities, with a well-taken winner against Egypt showing that the 19-year-old is capable from centre-forward positions.
In short, this is not a squad short on pace, power, technical ability and flair, even if other teams might possess more of some of these attributes.
And while Ancelotti has not quite got the team to gel so far, there is no reason why it couldn’t all begin to click in the next few weeks. The Italian has previously proved that he is one of the best in the world at giving his players the best platform for their talents, most recently when leading a Vini Jr-inspired Real Madrid to the Champions League in 2024.
One key ingredient that is missing – and could well appear this summer – is leadership. Not necessarily the captaincy kind – which can be provided by Gabriel and co. – but more in terms of a ‘star’.
In ‘94, Romario was even criticised by Pele in the lead-up to the tournament, though he answered by scoring in each group game as well as the quarter-finals and semi-finals. His strike partner Bebeto scored three times, including in the quarters and the only goal in the last-16 victory over the hosts.
The question now is whether someone can do the same this summer. Vini Jr. has long been the leader of this side but he’s not been able to translate his club form over to the international stage, while the same could be said for Raphinha. All eyes will be on those two, though maybe Endrick or Cunha will step up to the plate. Perhaps even Neymar Jr could be in line for the fairytale ending to an international career that’s seen so much heartbreak.
And so, perhaps Brazil’s chances this summer need a little more context. Performances and results haven’t been great, but this is a team that’s got plenty of talent and is led by one of the greatest managers of all time. Ancelotti has previously shown that sometimes it really can be that simple, so now his players need to deliver when it matters.
