Here is a number worth sitting with before draft day: 3.1 blocks a night in just 29.2 minutes. Pair it with 31.1 points on 55.3% shooting, or a center averaging 10.7 assists, and you have the case for why Nikola Jokić, Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are filling the first three picks in most category leagues. Even Giannis Antetokounmpo, who insists the Heat will win a championship after his summer move to Miami, is being drafted around seventh.
The public boards back that up. FantasyPros’ composite ADP has Jokić at 1.5 and Wembanyama at 2.0, with Gilgeous-Alexander right behind at 3.0, and RotoWire’s NBA fantasy basketball rankings open the season with the same names at the top. There is one complication, and he plays for the Lakers. Luka Dončić sits at 3.5 in that same table, and in points formats he does not just belong in the conversation. He breaks it.
Jokić Has No Hole to Exploit
The Nuggets center averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 1.4 steals across 65 games last season, shooting 56.9% from the field and 83.1% from the line. Stats like those leave category managers with nothing to punt.
His one soft spot is 3.7 turnovers per game, which is a real cost in nine category leagues. The trouble for anyone hoping to fade him is that his efficiency on 17.4 shots a night makes up for it several times over. Denver opens at Oklahoma City on October 22, and Jokić will be favored to make that matchup the first of many quiet triple doubles. He logged 34 of them last season.
Wembanyama Is a Category League Cheat Code
Wembanyama averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 3.1 blocks in 64 games, and did it in 29.2 minutes. San Antonio won 62 games without needing to push his workload. That restraint matters for fantasy: the Spurs already know how good they are, and a 22 year old who stays healthy at that minutes load is a safer bet than he looked a year ago.
No one else in the league offers his block total alongside 1.9 made threes and 82.7% free throw shooting. In head to head category formats, a manager holding Wembanyama starts most weeks a category ahead before tipoff. That is why some drafters take him first overall, and why RotoWire describes the choice between him and Jokić as having no wrong answer.
SGA Wins on Percentages
The Thunder guard averaged 31.1 points in 68 games, but the number that makes him a top three pick is his shooting split. He hit 55.3% from the field and 87.9% from the line on 9.0 attempts a night, which turns his volume into a weapon in both percentage categories rather than a liability.
He also kept turnovers to 2.2 per game while carrying a 64 win team. For a guard with his usage, that is a rare profile, and it is the reason he edges Dončić in most category rankings.
Where the Gap Is Real, and Where It Isn’t
The case for a three player tier is strongest in nine category leagues. Dončić scored more than anyone, 33.5 points in 64 games, with 7.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 1.6 steals, but he also turned it over 4.0 times a game and shot 78.0% at the line on more than ten attempts. Those two categories are exactly where the top three separate from him.
Switch to points scoring and the picture flips. Using a common setup (one point per point, 1.2 per rebound, 1.5 per assist, three per steal or block, minus one per turnover), last season’s per game outputs look like this:
- Jokić: 62.1
- Dončić: 57.7
- Wembanyama: 53.4
- SGA: 50.4
- Cade Cunningham: 48.6
On that scale Dončić is second, not fourth, and the real cliff sits after the top four. Cunningham’s 23.9 points and 9.9 assists make him the best of the next group in points leagues, yet he still trails SGA by nearly two points a night.
LeBron’s exit raises the ceiling further. With James gone, the Lakers’ offense belongs to Dončić outright, and another usage spike would narrow the gap even in category formats.
Movement Elsewhere Is Why the Top Feels Safe
The rest of the first round is a list of question marks. James is in Philadelphia at 41 and managing chronic arthritis in his left foot, sharing touches with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown and second year guard V.J. Edgecombe. Antetokounmpo is learning a new system in Miami, where his first preseason outing lasted 14 minutes. Jayson Tatum inherits Boston’s offense after the Brown trade brought Paul George the other way. In New York, Towns says his extension talks with the Knicks “don’t look good.”
Each of those situations could settle by Christmas or could drag a first round pick into the second round of value. The top three carry none of that noise. Each of them returns to the same team, in the same role, as when they posted last season’s numbers.
What to Do With a Top Four Pick
If you are picking first or second, take whichever of Jokić or Wembanyama is there and move on. At third in a category league, SGA is the play. In a points league, Dončić at third is defensible and arguably correct.
The bigger risk sits later in the round, where the Giannis and LeBron situations will change weekly through October. Check your board against the depth charts again a few days before your draft, because the tier behind these four is where leagues will actually be won.
