Keith Smith of Spotrac took a close look at the Thunder’s long-term cap outlook and concluded that the second tax apron is unlikely to force Oklahoma City to break up its core anytime soon.
Even as the defending champions move toward a more expensive roster, Smith explains that the structure of their contracts provides breathing room.
Starting next season, the Thunder will have three players on maximum-salary deals, but both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will be on the smallest tier of max contracts – starting at 25% of the cap rather than the higher 30% or 35% levels.
Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s super-max contract doesn’t begin until the 2027/28 season, giving the team a few more years of financial spacing.
Smith also notes that Oklahoma City has done a strong job of building flexibility around its stars. Several of their rotation players are signed to declining-value contracts, which reduce cap pressure over time.
Additionally, the team options for 2026/27 on Isaiah Hartenstein and Luguentz Dort will likely be declined in favor of more cap-efficient deals that better fit the roster’s long-term plan.
Losing Hartenstein or Dort for financial reasons would certainly sting, Smith acknowledges, but the Thunder have consistently prepared for situations like that by developing young talent.
Prospects such as Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Nikola Topic, and Thomas Sorber give the team internal options who could take on bigger roles if needed.
On top of that, Oklahoma City remains positioned to keep adding high-end talent.
According to Smith, the Thunder could hold as many as four first-round picks in the 2026 draft, further reinforcing the sustainability of their contender-level roster even under stricter cap rules.
Thunder Notes: Cap Outlook, Draft, Jay. Williams, Sorber https://t.co/QE00aB3UPs pic.twitter.com/WwNlwuVG5R
— Hoops Rumors (@HoopsRumors) November 25, 2025
