Rob Edwards comes from the Midlands and his family live in the Midlands. He has been a Wolves player, first-team coach, Under-18 and Under-23 and caretaker manager. Now he will be manager. So far, so logical; so sentimental, too.
Edwards has traded up: a division, in one respect, a mere two places in the pyramid in another. And this is where it may be illogical, a case of heart ruling the head. Opta’s predicted league table may not take account of managerial change but it gives Wolves a 90.15 per cent chance of being relegated and Middlesbrough, the club he is leaving, a 30.68 per cent chance of automatic promotion and a 40.84 per cent chance of going up, including the play-offs. To put it another way, his best chance of managing in the Premier League next season might entail not taking charge of Wolves.
Which could seem a pessimistic assessment. After all, Edwards had a transformative impact immediately at Boro. He won his first four league games; the Premier League table could have a rather different look if he repeats that feat at Wolves. Yet it was in a division where Boro had one of the finer squads and when he did not start at such a disadvantage.
But there is a proud tradition of escapology in Wolverhampton. Wolves took three points from their first 10 games last season, and just nine from their opening 16. They began the 2022-23 campaign with 10 points from 15. They stayed up each time. With something to spare, too. But also with substantially better players.
The reasons to think this is substantially different, a relegation battle too far, can stem from the table, the competition, the fixture list, the squad. The last team to take two or fewer points in their first 11 games of a top-flight campaign and survive was Stoke City in 1951-52; but with a substantial mid-season spend on players, which Wolves’ owners, Fosun, may not be willing to authorise.
Wolves are now seven points from 19th, eight from 18th, 17 adrift of pre-season relegation favourites Sunderland. When they did not win any of their first 10 matches last season, they were only four points from 17th. At Christmas 2022, they were four points from safety. This is a far deeper hole.
Wolves may deny it, but the impression is they began under the complacent assumption that the three promoted clubs would simply go back down, perhaps with as few points as last season, when none topped 25. There is a danger in aiming to come 17th; it gives a club little leeway for error.
Meanwhile, Wolves signed six players in the summer without Premier League experience; it is not a problem in itself, but it prompts the question of who they expected to get the points now. But maybe they felt they would only need 26 when the early evidence is that at least 36 could be required.
And there is also the question of where those – perhaps an extra 34 – points are supposed to come. It scarcely bodes well that Wolves have already lost to all three promoted clubs. It is still worse that the defeats to Leeds and Burnley were at Molineux; in theory they should be two of the most winnable games all season. They have lost to five of the seven teams immediately above them. They have only faced six of the top 12 so far.
The calendar does not offer an obvious sequel to Vitor Pereira’s March-and-April run of six straight wins; and if they featured five goals from Jorgen Strand Larsen and he remains at Molineux, albeit stranded on a solitary strike this season, the Portuguese’s first four victories included goals from the catalytic Matheus Cunha.
He is gone now, along with Rayan Ait-Nouri and Nelson Semedo. Julen Lopetegui and Pereira’s rescue jobs came with more quality. Wolves are arguably down to three high-class players, in Larsen, Joao Gomes and Andre; that two are defensive midfielders leaves few obvious match-winners.
That Edwards has a long-term contract suggests he is hired with the Championship in mind; he took Luton up and might have followed suit with Boro. This could be forward planning, Wolves accepting their fate. Yet it is notable that Pereira signed a three-year deal as recently as September.
It is also potentially problematic that managers who take over this early in a season tend to be tarnished by a relegation that already looked inevitable; the most extreme case was Paul Jewell, in Derby’s record-breaking 11-point campaign. He did not have a clean slate the following year with either players or supporters. The danger for Edwards, an emotional man who felt worn down by Luton’s struggles last year, is that he becomes seen as the manager who lost, say, 20 of his 27 league games.
The other danger is that he does not make it that far. Some of the briefer managerial reigns belong to those who took over relegation-threatened teams, overestimating their ability to make a difference and discovering despondency and defeats were endemic, morale low, teams poor. Just ask Nathan Jones and Ivan Juric, Les Reed and Rene Meulensteen, Bob Bradley and far too many people who have managed Watford (as Edwards also did, but in the Championship).
But there can be a common denominator among managers who hop aboard sinking ships. They fail to notice in time how many holes there are, or how much water is getting in, until it is too late. Edwards may have long felt destined to manage Wolves. But their precarious position may mean this was an offer he could, and should, have refused.
